Memorial Day signifies the halfway point before voters make their way to the polls, and as the presidential campaigns kick off in full swing, former President Donald Trump currently holds a nationwide advantage over President Joe Biden, reversing the outcome observed on Memorial Day 2023.
Heading into Memorial Day in 2020, these top 3 polls had the breakdown as follows:
Morning Consult:
Biden +2
May 20-22, 2023
Quinnipiac University:
Biden +2
May 18-22, 2023
RMG Research:
Biden +1
May 22-24, 2023
Four years later, the polls are painting a MUCH different picture:
HarrisX/Harris Poll:
Trump +8
May 15-16, 2024
Echelon Insights:
Trump +5
May 13-16, 2024
YouGov:
Trump +1
May 19-21, 2024
People seem to have already formed their opinions about Biden. His approval rating has consistently stayed below 40 percent since 2022, currently at 35 percent compared to 38 percent last Memorial Day. Historically, presidents typically require a 50 percent approval rating to secure reelection.
Various political factors have come into play since last May. These factors include: (1) Trump facing multiple indictments; (2) Hamas launching an attack on Israel on October 7; (3) Americans grappling with the high costs in Biden’s economy, a key concern for voters; and (4) the southern border emerging as a significant issue for voters.
These factors seem to have either harmed Biden or benefited Trump. Democrats have expressed dissatisfaction with Biden’s handling of the events on October 7. Biden is being held responsible for the slow economic growth on Main Street and the ongoing migration issues, while Trump has gained momentum due to the indictments.
These factors have seemingly made Trump’s presidency more appealing.
