The Cook Political Report has changed its prediction for the 2024 presidential election to favor former President Donald Trump.
Amy Walter, the editor of the non-partisan election forecaster, said that the Democratic Party is in a state of suspended animation as of July 9. President Joe Biden has said he doesn’t plan to drop out of the race. Walter said that some people she talked to think Biden will quit because of his poor poll numbers, but it’s not likely.
According to its latest Electoral Map prediction, Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada have all moved from being classified as “toss-up” to “lean Republican,” giving Trump 268 electoral votes.
Cook Political changed the status of Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Nebraska’s 2nd District from “likely Democrat” to “lean Democrat,” which suggests that Trump may be able to win these blue states. Only 226 of the 270 electoral votes Biden needs are in his column. The other 44 must-win contests are Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Dave Wasserman, Cook Senior Editor, said that the idea that the presidential election is a Toss Up was a stretch even before the debate. Today, Trump is ahead of Biden and has a better chance of winning the 270 electoral votes. According to the Cook prediction, Trump can win the election by winning one of the three states that are toss-up.
Today, we're making six changes to our Electoral College Ratings.
AZ: Toss Up to Lean R
GA: Toss Up to Lean R
MN: Likely D to Lean D#NE02: Likely D to Lean D
NH: Likely D to Lean D
NV: Toss Up to Lean R@amyewalter on the state of the race post-debate: https://t.co/AAoW23wKWC— Cook Political Report (@CookPolitical) July 9, 2024
